The OpenAI · Microsoft · NVIDIA triangle.
A length-3 cycle in which Microsoft's equity in OpenAI returns as Azure commitments; OpenAI's GPU spend lands at NVIDIA; NVIDIA, in turn, sells its data-center silicon back to Microsoft. Five disclosed edges. One closed loop.
Each side of the triangle is a public deal. Read together, the three sides describe a closed loop in which the same dollars can be plausibly traced — through equity, cloud commitments, and data-center capex — back to roughly where they started.
§ 1The structure
Cycle C-01 is the simplest non-trivial circular structure in the sample: a directed triangle of length 3 with one edge of each major flow type. In the canonical direction it reads OpenAI → NVIDIA → Microsoft → OpenAI. In reverse, every edge has a counter-edge, making the underlying loop tightly coupled.
Each side of the triangle is a public deal. Read together, they make one closed loop.
§ 2Edge anatomy
The cycle decomposes into three primary edges and two counter-edges. Edge weights are normalized to an estimated annualized run-rate where deal magnitude is undisclosed; raw figures appear in the rightmost column.
| Edge | Description | Type | Weight wₑ | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI → NVIDIA | GPU procurement contracted via cloud passthrough; estimated annualized. | compute | 0.78 | ~$5.2B / yr |
| NVIDIA → Microsoft | Data-center silicon shipments to Azure and OpenAI-dedicated capacity. | compute | 0.86 | ~$8.0B / yr |
| Microsoft → OpenAI | Equity tranches plus prepaid Azure credits, treated as combined capital flow. | equity | 0.92 | $13B+ disclosed |
| Microsoft → NVIDIA | Counter-edge — chip purchase orders for Azure datacenter expansion. | compute | 0.62 | undisclosed |
| OpenAI → Microsoft | Counter-edge — Azure committed spend tied to OpenAI workload. | service | 0.81 | multi-year |
§ 3Score derivation
Applying equation (2) from § 2.3 of the paper to the canonical 3-cycle:
Length-normalized: C(C-01)¹ᐟ³ ≈ 0.85. The aggregate score reported in the index (3.41) sums this primary cycle with the two counter-edges that close shorter sub-loops L(OpenAI, Microsoft) and L(NVIDIA, Microsoft).
§ 4Timeline
§ 5Why it matters
Three implications follow from the structure. First, OpenAI's reported cloud spend is, in part, capital that originated as Microsoft equity — a fact that is orthogonal to whether either firm has done anything improper, but material to how revenue should be attributed. Second, NVIDIA's data-center growth is partly a derivative of capital that Microsoft chose to deploy through OpenAI rather than directly. Third, the three firms' reported figures move together by construction.
Open questions
- What share of OpenAI's cloud spend would persist if Microsoft's equity tranches were withdrawn?
- How sensitive is NVIDIA's data-center growth to the marginal Microsoft order driven by OpenAI workloads?
- Should consolidated revenue measures discount edges that close cycles within a single corporate cluster?
§ 6Notes & sources
Magnitudes are estimates compiled from SEC filings, press releases, and reporting by major outlets through Q1 2026. Where deal value is undisclosed, weights are derived from the proxy method described in § 2.4 of the methodology. Counter-edge weights inherit the procurement-channel proxy.